Fuel Moisture Models¶
These modules estimate dead fuel moisture content, which is a key driver of fire behavior. The DeadFuelMoisture class implements the Nelson model, a physics-based 1D finite-difference solver that simulates moisture diffusion through cylindrical fuel sticks based on weather conditions. The IRPGMoistureModel class implements the Incident Response Pocket Guide (IRPG) method for quick fine dead fuel moisture estimation from temperature, humidity, and site condition correction factors.
The DeadFuelMoisture model is used by the core simulation to dynamically update fuel moisture at each time step. The IRPGMoistureModel can be used to sample realistic dead fuel moisture values for the prediction model, where fuel moisture is held constant — by sampling from known weather conditions for the prediction region, the fixed dead_mf parameter in PredictorParams can be set to a value informed by the IRPG tables rather than an arbitrary default.
Dead Fuel Moisture Model.
This module implements the Nelson dead fuel moisture model, which simulates moisture diffusion through cylindrical fuel sticks using implicit finite difference methods.
The model tracks moisture content, temperature, and saturation at discrete nodes along the radius of the fuel stick, updating based on weather conditions.
Performance Note
The inner loop calculations are JIT-compiled using Numba when available. Set EMBRS_DISABLE_JIT=1 to disable JIT compilation for debugging.
DeadFuelMoisture
¶
Nelson dead fuel moisture model for cylindrical fuel sticks.
This class implements a 1D implicit finite difference solver that simulates moisture diffusion through fuel sticks based on weather conditions.
Attributes:
| Name | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
m_radius |
Fuel stick radius (cm) |
|
m_nodes |
Number of radial nodes |
|
m_w |
Moisture content at each node (g/g) |
|
m_t |
Temperature at each node (°C) |
|
m_s |
Saturation at each node (fraction) |
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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__init__(radius, stv, wmx, wfilmk)
¶
Initialize the dead fuel moisture model.
Parameters:
| Name | Type | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
radius
|
float
|
Fuel stick radius (cm). |
required |
stv
|
float
|
Storm threshold (cm/h). |
required |
wmx
|
float
|
Maximum fiber saturation (g/g). |
required |
wfilmk
|
float
|
Water film constant. |
required |
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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createDeadFuelMoisture1()
staticmethod
¶
Create 1-hour fuel moisture model (fine fuels).
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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createDeadFuelMoisture10()
staticmethod
¶
Create 10-hour fuel moisture model.
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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createDeadFuelMoisture100()
staticmethod
¶
Create 100-hour fuel moisture model.
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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createDeadFuelMoisture1000()
staticmethod
¶
Create 1000-hour fuel moisture model (large logs).
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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deriveAdsorptionRate(radius)
¶
Derive adsorption rate constant from stick radius.
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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deriveDiffusivitySteps(radius)
¶
Derive number of diffusivity sub-steps from stick radius.
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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deriveMoistureSteps(radius)
¶
Derive number of moisture sub-steps from stick radius.
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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derivePlanarHeatTransferRate(radius)
¶
Derive planar heat transfer rate from stick radius.
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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deriveRainfallRunoffFactor(radius)
¶
Derive rainfall runoff factor from stick radius.
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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deriveStickNodes(radius)
¶
Derive number of radial nodes from stick radius (always odd).
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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diffusivity(bp)
¶
Compute diffusivity using JIT kernel if available.
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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from_string(input_str)
staticmethod
¶
Deserialize a DeadFuelMoisture instance from its string representation.
Parameters:
| Name | Type | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
input_str
|
str
|
String produced by |
required |
Returns:
| Name | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
DeadFuelMoisture |
DeadFuelMoisture
|
Reconstructed model instance. |
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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initializeEnvironment(ta, ha, sr, rc, ti, hi, wi, bp)
¶
Initialize environmental conditions.
Parameters:
| Name | Type | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
ta
|
float
|
Ambient air temperature (°C). |
required |
ha
|
float
|
Ambient air relative humidity (g/g). |
required |
sr
|
float
|
Solar radiation (W/m²). |
required |
rc
|
float
|
Cumulative rainfall (cm). |
required |
ti
|
float
|
Initial stick temperature (°C). |
required |
hi
|
float
|
Initial stick surface humidity (g/g). |
required |
wi
|
float
|
Initial stick moisture content (g/g). |
required |
bp
|
float
|
Barometric pressure (cal/cm³). |
required |
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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initializeParameters(radius, stv, wmx, wfilmk)
¶
Initialize model parameters based on fuel geometry.
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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initializeStick()
¶
Initialize the fuel stick state arrays.
Arrays are stored as numpy arrays for compatibility with JIT kernels.
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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initialized()
¶
Check if environment has been initialized.
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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meanMoisture()
¶
Calculate mean moisture using Simpson's rule integration.
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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meanWtdMoisture()
¶
Calculate volume-weighted mean moisture.
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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meanWtdTemperature()
¶
Calculate volume-weighted mean temperature.
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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pptRate()
¶
Get precipitation rate.
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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stateName()
¶
Get the name of the current moisture state.
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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uniformRandom(min_val, max_val)
staticmethod
¶
Generate uniform random value in range.
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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update(year, month, day, hour, minute, second, at, rh, sW, rcum, bpr)
¶
Update moisture based on datetime and weather.
Parameters:
| Name | Type | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
year
|
int
|
Year. |
required |
month
|
int
|
Month (1-12). |
required |
day
|
int
|
Day of month. |
required |
hour
|
int
|
Hour (0-23). |
required |
minute
|
int
|
Minute (0-59). |
required |
second
|
int
|
Second (0-59). |
required |
at
|
float
|
Air temperature (°C). |
required |
rh
|
float
|
Relative humidity (fraction). |
required |
sW
|
float
|
Solar radiation (W/m²). |
required |
rcum
|
float
|
Cumulative rainfall (cm). |
required |
bpr
|
float
|
Barometric pressure (cal/cm³). |
required |
Returns:
| Name | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
bool |
bool
|
True if update succeeded, False otherwise. |
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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update_internal(et, at, rh, sW, rcum, bpr)
¶
Update moisture state for elapsed time.
This is the main computational method. Inner loops are JIT-compiled when Numba is available. The outer loop uses local variable caching and math.exp/math.log for scalar operations to minimize overhead.
Parameters:
| Name | Type | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
et
|
float
|
Elapsed time (hours). |
required |
at
|
float
|
Air temperature (°C). |
required |
rh
|
float
|
Relative humidity (fraction). |
required |
sW
|
float
|
Solar radiation (W/m²). |
required |
rcum
|
float
|
Cumulative rainfall (cm). |
required |
bpr
|
float
|
Barometric pressure (cal/cm³). |
required |
Returns:
| Name | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
bool |
bool
|
True if update succeeded, False otherwise. |
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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zero()
¶
Reset all state to zero.
Source code in embrs/models/dead_fuel_moisture.py
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IRPG fine dead fuel moisture estimation model.
Implement the Incident Response Pocket Guide (IRPG) method for estimating fine dead fuel moisture (FDFM) from temperature, relative humidity, and site condition correction factors (shading, aspect, slope, elevation, time of day, and month).
Classes:
| Name | Description |
|---|---|
- FuelMoisturePriors |
Prior probability distributions for site conditions. |
- IRPGMoistureModel |
FDFM estimation combining RFM lookup and stochastic correction factors. |
References
National Wildfire Coordinating Group. (2014). Incident Response Pocket Guide (IRPG). PMS 461, NFES 1077.
FuelMoisturePriors
dataclass
¶
Probability distributions for stochastic sampling of site conditions.
Attributes:
| Name | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
p_shaded |
float
|
Probability that the site is shaded (0 to 1) |
aspect_probs |
List[float]
|
Probabilities for aspects [N, E, S, W], must sum to 1 |
slope_probs |
List[float]
|
Probabilities for slope bins [0-30%, 31%+], must sum to 1 |
elev_probs |
List[float]
|
Probabilities for elevation relation [Below, Level, Above], must sum to 1 |
Source code in embrs/models/irpg_moisture_model.py
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IRPGMoistureModel
¶
IRPG-based fine dead fuel moisture estimation model.
Combines Reference Fuel Moisture (RFM) lookup from temperature and relative humidity with stochastic correction factors (Δ) based on site conditions (shading, aspect, slope, elevation, time of day, and month).
Example
priors = FuelMoisturePriors(p_shaded=0.3) model = IRPGMoistureModel(priors) rng = np.random.default_rng(42) fdfm = model.sample_fdfm(T=75.0, RH=35.0, month=7, local_time_hr=14, rng=rng)
Source code in embrs/models/irpg_moisture_model.py
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__init__(priors)
¶
Initialize the model with prior distributions.
Parameters:
| Name | Type | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
priors
|
FuelMoisturePriors
|
FuelMoisturePriors instance with probability distributions for site condition sampling. |
required |
Raises:
| Type | Description |
|---|---|
ValueError
|
If priors have invalid lengths or don't sum to ~1.0 |
Source code in embrs/models/irpg_moisture_model.py
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rfm(T, RH)
¶
Look up Reference Fuel Moisture from temperature and relative humidity.
Parameters:
| Name | Type | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
T
|
float
|
Temperature in degrees Fahrenheit |
required |
RH
|
float
|
Relative humidity as percentage (0-100) |
required |
Returns:
| Type | Description |
|---|---|
float
|
Reference Fuel Moisture as a float (typically 1-14%) |
Source code in embrs/models/irpg_moisture_model.py
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sample_delta(month, local_time_hr, rng)
¶
Sample a correction factor (Δ) based on site conditions.
Stochastically samples shading, aspect, slope, and elevation according to the configured priors, then looks up the appropriate correction value from IRPG tables.
Parameters:
| Name | Type | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
month
|
int
|
Month as integer 1-12 |
required |
local_time_hr
|
int
|
Hour of day in 24-hour format (0-23) |
required |
rng
|
Generator
|
NumPy random Generator for reproducible sampling |
required |
Returns:
| Type | Description |
|---|---|
float
|
Correction factor as a float (typically 0-6) |
Source code in embrs/models/irpg_moisture_model.py
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sample_fdfm(T, RH, month, local_time_hr, rng)
¶
Sample Fine Dead Fuel Moisture (FDFM) percentage.
Combines Reference Fuel Moisture lookup with stochastically sampled correction factors based on site conditions.
Parameters:
| Name | Type | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
T
|
float
|
Temperature in degrees Fahrenheit |
required |
RH
|
float
|
Relative humidity as percentage (0-100) |
required |
month
|
int
|
Month as integer 1-12 |
required |
local_time_hr
|
int
|
Hour of day in 24-hour format (0-23) |
required |
rng
|
Generator
|
NumPy random Generator for reproducible sampling |
required |
Returns:
| Type | Description |
|---|---|
float
|
Fine dead fuel moisture as percentage (float) |
Source code in embrs/models/irpg_moisture_model.py
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